Market Newsletters

Equities continued to rally in June, albeit at a slower pace. The S&P’s 500 ended the month up 1.99% on a total return basis. The Nasdaq Composite rose 6.07%, while the Russell 2000 (Small US Caps) was up 3.53%. Internationally, the broad EPAC BMI (developed economies) was up 2.85% and the MSCI EM (emerging markets) a larger 7.85%.

The general market rise was associated with the gradual re-opening of most economies around the world. In the US, the positive market move in June was not without volatility, as illustrated in the chart below.

The upward movement in equity markets worldwide continued in May, albeit at a slower pace. The S&P’s 500 was up a robust 4.76% while the Nasdaq went up 6.89% and the Russell Small Cap index 6.51%. As of the end of May, US equities had recouped close to 95% of their 2020 losses. The speed at which the correction took place was unprecedented and so has been the rebound.

Internationally, all indices rose but generally less spectacularly than their US counterparts. The S&P’s EPAC BMI (developed economies) rose 4.56%. Emerging market indices were up 3.29% (MSCI EM) and 3.97% (MSCI Frontier 100). The USD was down a bit In May, causing some export driven developed economies (Germany, Japan) to finally outperform. The DAX was up 9.37% in May and The TOPIX was up about 7.05%.

In April, US equity indices bounced powerfully up from the lows reached at the end of March, recouping up to 50% of their peak to trough losses (February 19 to March 23). The S&Ps’ 500 finished up 12.35%. The Russell 2000 jumped 13.74% while the Nasdaq continued to do better than all, rising 15.49%.

Internationally, all indices rose but once again less meaningfully ..

March was a month worthy of the record books. Investors suffered massive losses, on a worldwide basis. No significant asset class was spared. The S&Ps’ 500 lost 12.35%. The Russell 2000 went down 19.49%, while the Nasdaq fared a bit better, going down 10.03%. Internationally all indices dropped, often more than their US counterparts as a result of a rising USD (up 3%). The S&P’s EPAC BMI (developed economies) went down 14.05%. Emerging market indices went down from 15% (MSCI EM) to 22% (MSCI Frontier 100).

In February, COVID 19 finally overwhelmed US equity markets. The S&Ps’ 500 lost 8.53%. The Russell 2000 went down 8.67%, while the Nasdaq fared a bit better, going down “only” 6.27%. Internationally all indices dropped, often more than their US counterparts as a result of a rising USD. The S&P’s EPAC BMI (developed economies) went down 9.28%.

US equities finished January with contrasted performances. The S&P’s 500 was down .04%, while the Nasdaq Composite finished up 2.03% over the same period. The Russell 2000, meanwhile, was down a sharp 3.21%. Internationally, all indices were down with the S&P’s EPAC BMI (developed economies) weakening 2.39% and the emerging market MSCI EM index down 4.66%. The threat to global economic growth that the Coronavirus epidemic presents explains all of this negativity.

Equities finished the year exuberantly. The S&P’s 500 rose 3.02% while the US Small Cap index progressed 2.88% and the Nasdaq Composite 3.63%.
Internationally, the USD declined and made it possible for most indices to rise, sometimes spectacularly. The EPAC BMI (developed economies) rose 3.47%.
In emerging markets the MSCI EM raced upward 7.46% while the Frontier 100 Index rose a solid 3.15%.

Equities rose once again in November with US equities, in particular, climbing between 3% and 4% overall. The S&P’s 500 gained 3.63% while the US Small Cap index progressed 4.12% and the Nasdaq Composite 4.64%.

Internationally, the rising USD made it harder for indices to move up as spectacularly. The S&P EPAC BMI (developed economies index) rose only 1.03%. In Emerging markets performance was more contrasted, with the MSCI EM dropping -.14% while the Frontier 100 Index rose a robust 2.77%.

After a difficult start, the month of October turned out to be positive for equities around the world. The S&P’s 500 gained 2.17%. The US Small Cap index rose a bit more with the Russell 2000 progressing 2.63%. Internationally, developed equities did well as the US dollar lost value against major currencies. As a consequence, international markets performed generally better than US markets.

The S&P EPAC BMI (developed economies index) rose 3.76%. Emerging markets equities were up too with the MSCI EM rising a solid 4.22% while the Frontier Index inched up .71%.

September was a positive month for equities around the world. A lessening of trade tensions between the US and China helped. So did the absolute spanking that Boris Johnson received from the UK parliament, thereby reducing the odds of a hard Brexit. That helped European equities outperform their US counterparts.
The S&P’s 500 gained 1.87% in September. The US Small Cap index rose a bit more with the Russell 2000 progressing 2.08%. Internationally, developed equities did well.

In August, the escalation of hostilities between the US and China on trade matters contributed to a sometimes severe negative performance for equity markets around the globe. The S&Ps’ 500 lost 1.58% while the US Small Cap index dropped 4.94%. Internationally, equities declined generally more abruptly. The S&P EPAC BMI (developed markets) shrunk 2.93% during August while emerging markets sunk by 4.88% (MSCI EM).

July saw US equity indices generate positive returns, once again. The S&P’s 500 rose by 1.44%. The Nasdaq Composite added 2.15% and the Russell 2000 (US Small Caps) .58%. Internationally, equities declined overall. This was mostly the result of Brexit-related fears in Europe and a rising USD.
The S&P EPAC BMI (developed markets) declined 1.49% during the month of July while emerging markets shrunk by 1.22% (MSCI EM).